The new president seems to lack ideas for solving the crisis
Already after his election victory, the oligarch Poroshenko announced that he would pacify Ukraine in a few days. It should be quickly "Antiterroperation" (ATO) be strengthened, while amnesty was promised to separatists who laid down their arms and who did not use force. Nothing came of it, of course, because the mistrust of many people in eastern Ukraine is too coarse, the armed conflicts do not contribute to negotiations, and in western Ukraine, too, more and more militias have emerged that are interested in the "Eastern front" want to fight.
So now Poroshenko declared again that the fighting in eastern Ukraine should end this week. And the new president also has a new strategy: the presumably extensive control of the border with Russia by separatists is to be ended. It is suspected or propagated – also on the part of the West and especially on the part of Ukrainian nationalists propaganda is made for their own interests with the corresponding building of enemy images and rumors – that Moscow supports the separatists materially, financially and with personnel. However, real evidence has not yet been provided, for example, regarding the Russian tanks that separatists own and that are said to have entered the country from Russia across the border.
Accordingly, the head of the National Security and Defense Council, Andriy Parubiy, who is affiliated with the Right Sector, declared that there were up to 20.000 militants in eastern Ukraine, half were from Russia. It is an old scheme to blame foreigners for grievances. Classic is also the argumentation that the Ukrainian security forces are hindered because they want to spare civilians, while the separatists acted in the opposite way. In addition, Ukraine now seems to want to unilaterally determine the course of the border, which could again lead to conflicts with Russia.
Poroshenko points to successes. 250 km have been secured, so that no more soldiers, tanks or other weapons will be allowed to cross the border "free" could come to Ukraine. He said there would be no ceasefire until the entire border was closed. And the combat readiness of the Ukrainian security forces has been a source of great optimism that the open border will soon be closed. However, the constitutional changes that would also guarantee greater autonomy and self-government to the regions in the east have not yet been decided.
Too little is known in a verifiable way about how Moscow directly or indirectly supports the insurgents in eastern Ukraine, while it is quite obvious how Russia is prering Ukraine with regard to gas prices. The state media obviously have a political agenda, but media in Western Ukraine are also supported by the West, which instead of enlightenment, carry out propaganda. For example, the Euromaidan protests in front of the Russian embassy in Kiev after the shooting down of the military plane over the Luhansk airport were allegedly staged by Moscow. The background is that the violent tendencies of the anti-Russian protesters have led the USA and other countries to call on the Ukrainian government to ensure the protection of the embassy. This was interpreted as a betrayal by Ukrainian nationalists.
Poroshenko now presumably ames that the resistance could be drained if the borders with Russia are closed. The idea of building a border fence or mining the border, following the example of Israel or the USA, has already been considered. In any case, all border crossings should be closed. But this could not be realized so far, because in Lugansk or Donetsk the border is not controlled by security forces loyal to Kiev. It is claimed that it is the Poroshenko-ordered "humanitarian corridors" to protect refugees, this cannot yet be confirmed. Moscow and Kiev accuse each other that the insecure situation in eastern Ukraine results in streams of refugees – some are said to flee because of the separatists, others because of the Ukrainian nationalists. Both will apply.
Poroshenko could quickly degenerate into an announcement president. It seems to lack a strategy to bring about reconciliation in the country, caught between Ukrainian nationalists and the West’s conflict with Russia. However, the situation could also quickly change if the U.S. and the West rediscover their love for Russia in the fight against the Islamists in Iraq and Syria supported by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. Democracy does not really matter to the West geopolitically. But it’s not just about separatism in eastern Ukraine or Iraq, it’s also about separatism in the UK, Spain and Italy. How to deal with separatism?