De-escalation with nato troops in ukraine?

Full-scale war can break out in Ukraine again at any time

If one constantly demands that Russia must first de-escalate in order to change its own policy, then it seems strange when NATO has just launched the Rapid Trident Manover at the Yavorov military training area in western Ukraine. In the current conditions of the conflict between the West and Russia, this should be seen as both a warning and a provocation. Although the exercise is held annually, the fact that it has to take place now is a clear sign that all the countries involved have agreed to it. After all, it had been possible to hold in another country. German soldiers participate, but also soldiers from Azerbaijan, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. Of course, soldiers from Ukraine are involved, but also from Georgia and Moldova. Moreover, other exercises are taking place.

It is to be expected and intended that Russia will react with anger to this flip. Moscow said that the exercise could increase tensions and endanger the ceasefire. This does not prevent Russia from expanding its troop presence in Crimea, sending a new, quite provocative aid convoy to eastern Ukraine, supplying Lugansk with electricity, and at the same time expanding its military presence in the Arctic. Because of the enormous resources and the new shipping routes, a dangerous conflict will develop here if there are no more talks and agreements between NATO and Russia, which were also urgently needed for action against the Islamic State in Syria in accordance with international law.

There seems to be no willingness on the part of NATO to do this, while the EU and the U.S. also seem to be focusing on escalation through new sanctions. However, it remains unclear under which conditions these will be terminated, so that the moderate countries are also caught in a spiral of sanctions. The situation in eastern Ukraine is highly unstable despite the ongoing ceasefire. The opposing federations are using the pause to better position themselves strategically for when the fighting resumes; in addition, individual skirmishes continue on both sides.

OSCE observers were fired upon Sunday after visiting the MH-17 crash site on their way to Donetsk. Both sides blame the other. The observers were apparently driving through a contested area. According to Aleksandr Zakharchenk, the leader of the "People’s Republic" the Ukrainians had begun to push that they had only returned fire and destroyed a Morse battery. OSCE observers did not say which route they will take. According to the OSCE report, the trip had been constantly agreed with both sides. From this it is clear that there is permanent fighting for Donetsk, but also for Mariupol. Apparently, fighting is increasing, troop deployments are taking place on both sides. The OSCE observers only accuse the separatists of not letting them through at a checkpoint and sending them back into the combat zone, but they make it clear that artillery fire apparently occurred on the part of Ukrainian forces. One of the two vehicles had been so heavily shot at that the observers could only continue in one vehicle. After talks with both sides, they left with an escort of separatists "People’s Republic" dangers. OSCE Urges Both Sides to Respect Ceasefire. In the last 48 hours, the injuries had multiplied.

Both sides were interested in making the other side responsible for a violation by provocation and to be able to restart the war in full. While the separatists hope to involve Russia more directly, the Ukrainian nationalists are counting on further engaging NATO in the conflict, and then imposing martial law as demanded by Prime Minister Jezanyuk. Wall propagandist Yatsenyuk, together with other right-wing nationalists, has founded a new party, the Popular Front, in which militia commanders also play a leading role. The hope is to undermine criticism of the ultra-right, such as the Svoboda party or the Right Sector, while presenting itself as a national party that is not subject to the will of oligarchs like Poroshenko or Tymoshenko. At the same time, work to reduce the wealth of the oligarchs as little as possible. Otherwise, they excuse everything because they are at war with Russia.

At the moment it looks like the only hope for Ukraine is President Poroshenko, an oligarch, a member of the elite that has been running the country for years under changing governments and party memberships. Poroshenko was Minister of Economy under Yanukovych, for example, and did not bring about any major changes during that time. Now, however, he is pursuing a moderate policy against the hawks in western Ukraine, relying on understanding with Moscow and the people in eastern Ukraine who are at odds with the post-Maidan government. Whether an oligarch of all people will change the economic, fiscal and financial policies in such a way that a democracy has a chance is questionable, but apparently there is no strong independent camp in Ukraine that strives for reforms and a peaceful solution.

At least Poroshenko continues to try to work out ways to stop singling out the people of eastern Ukraine as terrorists and to allow the region to become more self-reliant. He continues to call for early local elections and a special status for Donetsk and Lugansk, in which separatists can also participate. He also wants to implement an amnesty scheme for members of the separatist militias if they surrender, hand over their weapons and stop occupying buildings. However, Poroshenko is reluctant to demand the same for the militias on the western Ukrainian side. The EU, on the other hand, does not make clear which political option it supports, which means that it tolerates right-wing forces.